Daily Foreign Exchange Market Update

Yesterday proved a good day for the Pound in the foreign exchange market as it gained strength against the Euro and the US Dollar. The GBP/EUR rate opened the day at a low of 1.1669 and strengthened across the day, hitting a daily high of 1.1757 before closing out at 1.1753. The GBP/USD rate opened the day at 1.5106 but dropped below the 1.51 level just after the open of the markets; it did however strengthen across the morning, hitting a daily high of 1.5144 before closing out at 1.5113. The US Dollar also saw losses against the Euro with the EUR/USD rate opening the day at 1.2945 and closing out at 1.2858.

Yesterday morning we saw UK CPI (inflation) come out at 2.8%, as expected but higher than the 2.0% target level set by the Bank of England. Regarding the current situation in Cyprus the political leaders are meeting for emergency talks after they rejected the international bailout deal put forward by the ECB. The plans to charge a one-off tax on savings failed to attract the necessary support and if a bailout deal is not agreed there are fears banks could remain closed as if they are opened there could be a high risk of a bank run.

The main news for today will be focused around the 2013 Budget which George Osborne will release around midday; before this we will see UK jobless claims change for February and the unemployment rate for the three months leading up to January. The jobless claims are expected to fall by 5K and the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 7.8%.

This afternoon will see the release of the FOMC’s decision on whether or not to keep the base interest rate at the current level of 0.25% and no change is expected.

This Daily Market Update is brought to you by The Market Team @ KBRFX – Exchange Rate, Currency Conversion & Foreign Currency Transfer specialists.

Daily Foreign Exchange Market Update

The Pound saw losses against the Euro and the US Dollar in the foreign exchange market yesterday. The GBPEUR rate opened the day at 1.2355 but moved to a daily high of 1.2362 an hour after the open; it fluctuated throughout the day, dropping to a daily low of 1.2331 before closing the day out at 1.2350. The GBPUSD rate opened at 1.6027, hitting a daily high of 1.6034 mid-morning, before falling to 1.5996 in the afternoon and closing out the day at 1.6013. There was no data released form the UK yesterday but there was some big news as the new Governor of the Bank of England was announced. The Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, announced that the new Governor will be Canadian, Mark Carney who is currently Governor of the Bank of Canada and Chairman of the Financial Stability Board. Many analysts believe it is a sound choice as he has experience as a central banker and Canada has had no big banking crisis like the UK has. Today has already seen the UK GDP revised figure come out at 1.0%, so no change.

The Euro saw gains versus the Pound but losses against the US Dollar during yesterday’s market session. The EURUSD rate opened the day at 1.2972 and dropped to a daily low shortly after to reach 1.2947; it then quickly peaked up to 1.2981 before lunch before it closed the day out at 1.2966. The major news from the Euro-zone yesterday was the Euro-group meeting where for the third time this month leaders have tried to clear an aid payment to Greece. There will be no data from the Euro-zone today.

Yesterday we saw the US Dollar gain against the Pound and the Euro in the foreign exchange market even though there was no data released from the US. Today will see durable goods orders for October be released with the figure set to fall by 1.0%. This is much lower than the previous figure of 9.9% for September showing a lower amount of confidence in the US market however Consumer Confidence will also be released and is set to rise from 72.2 to 73.0.

This Daily Market Update is brought to you by The Market Team @ KBRFX – Exchange Rate, Currency Conversion & Foreign Currency Transfer specialists.

Foreign Exchange Daily Market Update 09/06/11

The news that Moody’s Investor Services could potentially downgrade the UK’s AAA credit rating pushed the Pound lower during yesterday’s trading session. The ratings agency warned that the UK could lose its top credit rating if the government failled to hit its fiscal targets. Francesco Meucci of Moody’s said, “slower growth combined with weaker-than-expected fiscal consolidation efforts” could be cause “to reconsider our stance.” However Meucci did state that the outlook for the UK’s AAA credit rating remains stable, but the warning was enough to stir the foreign exchange market and the GBP/USD exchange rate fell to 1.6355, but this morning the rate had recovered to 1.6466 making it better to buy Dollars.

For the first time this week the UK will be publishing important economic figures, the main event being the Bank of England's interest decision for the month. Forecasts call for the central bank to hold key interest rates at the historic low of 0.5% and to maintain the stock of asset purchases at £200 billion. A surprise rate hike would bolster the Pound's standing, but given the ongoing weakness in the economy and Chancellor George Osborne's implementation of austerity measures, the chances of this happening are very remote. Prior to the interest rate, the UK's visible trade balance is expected to show a narrower deficit since March from £7.66 billion to £7.549 billion. The news could potentially lift the Pound before the BoE announce their rate decision.

A larger than expected decline in Germany’s export figures for April worked against the Euro yesterday, and the single currency was further hampered by an unexpected contraction in German industrial production over the same period. The figures showed that exports in Germany fell by 5.5%, a much worse result than estimates of a 3.0% decline, while the nation's industrial production contracted by 0.6% month-on-month when a 0.2% increase had been forecast. Europe's second round of GDP estimates did nothing to support the Euro despite confirming that Euro-zone growth was up by 0.8% from 0.3% in the 4th quarter of 2010 as sovereign debt fears continued to weigh on the Euro when news came out that Greece may not receive its next lot of aid. A report published by Reuters said that the EU, IMF and ECB would not provide further aid unless Greece could resolve under-financing in its adjustment programme. The news allowed the Pound to regain its footing against the Euro and the exchange rate rose to 1.1250 by the open of the Asian session and the GBP/EUR exchange rate had slipped back to 1.1238 by this morning.

As always when the Bank of England announce their interest rate decision, so too will the European Central Bank. Economists widely believe that the ECB will hold interest rates at the current level of 1.25%, however there will be huge interest in the conference that follows. Trader's will listen closely to ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet's comments for the key phrase of "strong vigilance" to be dropped, a phrase that signals that a rate hike will take place at the next policy meeting and this would bolster the Euro.

The Fed's Beige Book report headlined the US trading session yesterday, and showed that growth had slowed in the federal districts of New York, Philadelphia, Atlanta and Chicago, while other districts continued to grow at a steady pace, mainly led by manufacturing. Ongoing weakness was reported within the housing sector as demand fell for residential construction and real estate, and consumer spending was also reported lower as consumers struggle with rising food and energy prices and fewer job opportunities. The overall picture is one of sluggish growth in the US, meaning that the Federal Open Market Committee is unlikely to raise rates off the 0.25% low until a more robust recovery is achieved.

Today’s docket will be another quiet one for the US with April’s trade balance sheet standing out as the most influential of the figures out today. Forecasts call the US trade deficit to widen from $48.2 billion in March to $48.8 billion, an outcome that could potentially weaken the Dollar’s standing against the other majors. However the currency could receive a slight lift later into the session as weekly jobless claims figures look set to fall for both initial and on going claimants.

Foreign Exchange Daily Market update 07/06/11

With nothing on Monday's docket to guide price direction for the Pound, foreign exchange traders and market participants alike focused on the news that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has backed Britain's austerity measures as put forward by Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne. The IMF said that "Strong fiscal consolidation is under way [in the UK] and remains essential to achieve a more sustainable budgetary position," and that the current economic weakness and above target inflation, which the IMF forecast to fall back to 2% over "reasonable time frame", are temporary. The Fund went onto say that it remains appropriate for the Bank of England to uphold the "current scale of monetary stimulus". This news supports forecasts that the BoE will maintain its current policy on Thursday when the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) convenes to announce their rate decision. The IMF's support should have lifted the Pound but it seems the currency exchange market was more interested in the Fund's growth forecasts for 2011, which it lowered from 1.7% to 1.5%. This left the Pound to hit a low of 1.1185 against the Euro and 1.6340 against the Dollar.

Another quiet day for the UK will mean traders will have to hold their breath until Thursday's rate decision by the MPC and the accompanying trade balance data to get a sense of price direction for the Pound.

A better than expected Euro-zone Producer Price Index (PPI) reading for April lifted rate hike expectations, to see the Euro make some early morning gains yesterday as PPI rose by 0.9% over the expected 0.8%. Further to this the election of a new Portuguese government meant that Lisbon can implement the necessary budget cuts and austerity measures as specified by the EU and IMF, and thus ensure further monetary aid if need be.

However the Euro's gains against the US Dollar quickly evaporated when German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, expressed that it was not absolutely certain that Greece would receive further bailout funding. Given that the single-currency has recently gained support from the notion that Greece will receive funding from the IMF and the EU, the Euro could be in for a major retracement if this is not the case. The Euro's decline was further compounded by ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio who, while delivering a speech in Italy, said the economic outlook for the euro-region remains weak leaving the currency to trade at a low of 1.4550 against the US Dollar.

The forecast stagnation in April's annualized Euro-zone retail sales are unlikely to support the Euro this morning, as the outcome is set to reinforce a weakened outlook for the economy. However a better than expected reading will provide the Euro with the means to retrace some of yesterday's loses. Germany's factory orders for April, which are due for release an hour later, has more potential to lift the single-currency as forecasts call for orders to increase by 2.00% month-on-month after having contracted by 4.00% in March.

While still reeling from last Friday's disappointing Non-farm Payrolls figure, price action for the US currency was largely mixed with economists seeing scope for a third round of Quantitative Easing (QE3) by the Fed in a bid to support the economy. However the US Dollar did benefit from Europe's sovereign debt woes through save haven trading, but it appeared as though markets favoured both the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc over the Dollar, as a haven, which was evident in the Dollar's decline against both currencies.

Looking ahead the US will see another reasonably quiet docket with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke making a speech in Atlanta being the key event to watch this afternoon. Bernanke's speech will be closely watched by traders for indications as to whether another round of quantitative easing will go ahead, if so then the Dollar is likely to suffer as it is a clear indication that the Federal Reserve believes the US recovery cannot be sustained without support.