Tuesday 30 October 2012

Daily Foreign Exchange Market Update

Yesterday saw the Pound lose strength against the Euro and the US Dollar in the foreign exchange market, with the GBPUSD rate opening at a daily high of 1.6066 and falling throughout the day to close out at a daily low of 1.6020 at the end of trade. The GBPEUR rate opened at 1.2449, gaining strength before peaking at a daily high of 1.2453 around midday. It lost some ground throughout the rest of the day, dropping to a daily low of 1.2413 an hour before the end of trade where it closed out at 1.2423. There was not a lot of data coming from the UK yesterday, with mortgage approvals and change in net lending to individuals being the two most significant. An increase in mortgage approvals, 48.7K to 50K shows more confidence from lenders which can also be linked to the other data release, change in net lending to individuals, the amount of new credit issued to customers which hit a four year high. Augusts’ result was -0.3B and the predicted figure for September was 0.6B, however the actual result came out at 1.7B showing a much more confident outlook from lenders.

The Euro gained some ground against the Pound but lost some versus the US Dollar. The EURUSD rate opened up at 1.2904 remaining fairly unchanged throughout the day before fluctuating quite substantially several hours before the close of trade. It peaked at a daily high of 1.2924 and then dropped and closed out at a daily low of 1.2896 at the end of trade. Yesterday saw German CPI (inflation) being released with the figure coming out in line with the analysts expectations, 2.0%. As the headline figure for inflation, CPI tracks the change in price of a basket of goods bought by consumers and it reflects the purchasing power of the Euro in Germany. This morning saw German unemployment figures being released with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 6.9% but the unemployment changed being 20K, double the predicted figure of 10K which is bad news for the German labour market.

It was a good day for buying US Dollars as it gained against both the Pound and the Euro in the foreign exchange market. Yesterday US consumer expenditure was released, measuring a price change in consumer goods and services came out in line with the predictions of 1.7%. Like CPI results it is a good forecast of inflation but it differs from CPI as it only measures goods and services that are targeted towards and consumed by individuals. Today consumer confidence, data that assesses consumer sentiment on business conditions, employment and personal income will be released and it is set to rise from 70.3 to 73. Each month the Conference Board survey 5,000 people on their expectations on future economic conditions so an increase like predicted shows a greater level of confidence within the market by consumers.

This Daily Market Update is brought to you by The Market Team @ KBRFXExchange Rate, Currency Conversion & Foreign Currency Transfer specialists.



Monday 29 October 2012

Daily Foreign Exchange Market Update

Last week saw the Pound move significantly against the Euro and the US Dollar in the foreign exchange market due to the release of UK third quarter GDP results. The GBPEUR rate opened at 1.2281 on Monday morning, dropping to a weekly low of 1.2247 on Monday afternoon before gaining strength throughout the rest of the week. When GDP results were released on Thursday the GBPEUR rate spiked above the 1.24 mark. It carried on rising until it peaked to a weekly high of 1.2496 Friday afternoon, closing slightly lower at 1.2442. The GBPUSD rate opened at 1.6036 and fell for throughout the first two days of trading, closing out on Tuesday afternoon at a weekly low of 1.5913. On the release of UK GDP results the GBPUSD rate peaked to a weekly high of 1.6144 on Thursday afternoon, closing the week slightly lower at 1.6091. The main data from the UK last week was the third quarter GDP results which were better then expected, coming out at 1% compared to the predicted 0.6% the catalyst for the strength in the Pound. This week will be a quiet week for UK data release with mortgage approvals being the most significant piece being released, a figure that shows the amount of mortgages approved in September, with the figure set to be 48.7K, up from the previous months result of 47.7K, showing a greater deal of confidence from lenders.

The Euro lost strength against the Pound and the US Dollar during last week’s market session; the EURUSD rate opened at 1.3057 and peaked to a week high of 1.3083 at the close of trade on Monday. It lost strength throughout the rest of the week, reaching a weekly low of 1.2882 on Friday morning before closing the week out slightly higher at 1.2935. There was not that much data released from the Euro-zone last week, the major piece being Euro-zone PMI which came out below the 50 mark at 45.3 showing an expected decrease in business conditions. This week will see more significant data being released with the first piece being German CPI (inflation) year on year for October which is expected to be 2%, slightly lower then the previous inflation figure of 2.1%. German unemployment rate is also set to be released with the figure expected to come out slightly higher at 6.9%, from 6.8% last month.

The US Dollar lost ground against the Pound but gained against the Euro in the foreign exchange market last week. The major data release was the GDP figure that was higher then expected, 2% compared to 1.8% showing a heightened level of growth in the US economy. This week will be a fairly busy week for data release with personal consumption expenditure and consumer confidence both coming out later this week. Personal consumption expenditure is predicted to rise from 1.6% to 1.7% showing consumers are buying more goods, therefore have a greater level of confidence. Consumer confidence, which assesses consumer sentiment regarding business conditions, unemployment and personal income and is also set to increase from 70.30 to 73.0.

This Daily Market Update is brought to you by The Market Team @ KBRFXExchange Rate, Currency Conversion & Foreign Currency Transfer specialists.



Thursday 25 October 2012

Daily Foreign Exchnage Market Update

The Pound saw itself gain strength against both the Euro and the US Dollar in the foreign exchange market yesterday. The GBPEUR rate opened at a daily low of 1.2303, moving up to a daily high at midday to 1.2380 but then lost the momentum during the afternoon to close out at 1.2370. The GBPUSD rate opened down at 1.5950 and dropped over the first hour of the day to reach a daily low of 1.5950. During the rest of the day it gained some strength, peaking at 1.6048 mid-afternoon and closing slightly lower at 1.6014. There was no data released from the UK yesterday.

This morning saw UK third quarter GDP data being released with figure being much better than expected. The economy contracted during April and June of this year by 0.4% and analysts predicted that the economy would grow by 0.6% between July and September but the figure came out at 1%. Yearly GDP data was also released and the economy was expected to shrink by 0.5% but it stayed flat, not changing at all. The quarter on quarter result showed that Britain has finally left a recession with the best result for 5 years, pre-recession, with Olympic ticket sales and a higher demand for services the supposed reason. As soon as the figure was released this morning the Pound peaked sharply against the majority of currencies, especially against the Euro which shows today would be a good day to buy Euros.

The Euro lost strength against the Pound and the US Dollar during yesterday’s market session. The EURUSD rate opened at 1.2990 and plummeted to a daily low of 1.2921 just an hour after opening. It then picked up during the rest of the day, peaking early afternoon at 1.2983 and closing at 1.2945. Euro-zone PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) was released yesterday, a figure that rates the level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders and supplier deliveries. The figure came out at 45.8, lower then the previous result of 46.1, where a figure below 50 shows a contraction in business conditions. As well as this, Mario Draghi spoke at a closed-door meeting at the Bundestag, Berlin where he started by defending the ECB’s bond buying plan to ease Euro-zone debt. He stated that he expects the economy to remain weak in the short term, reflecting adjustments that many countries are undergoing in order to lay foundations for sustainable future prosperity. Although he believes the economy will be weak the overall felling of the speech was one of optimism as he kept repeating that the economy is moving in the right direction. Today is a very quiet day for the Euro-zone with no significant data being released.

The US Dollar weakened against the Pound but strengthened against the Euro in the foreign exchange market. The EURUSD rate opened at 1.2990 and followed a similar pattern to the GBPUSD rate, falling sharply early morning to reach a daily low of 1.2921. It then strengthened and peaked early afternoon at 1.2983 before closing slightly lower at 1.2945. No data came out of the US yesterday but today will see jobless claims, the number of people claiming for unemployment whilst actively seeking work; a figure that is highly correlated with labour market conditions. The previous result was 388K and the expected figure is set to fall to 370K. Durable goods figures will also be released today, an important figure as durable goods are expected to last longer than three years therefore they have to be worth the investment. The previous result was -13.2% but this result is set to be a positive figure, 7.5%.

This Daily Market Update is brought to you by The Market Team @ KBRFXExchange Rate, Currency Conversion & Foreign Currency Transfer specialists.




Wednesday 24 October 2012

Daily Foreign Exchange Market Update

Yesterday the Pound fall slightly against the Euro in the foreign exchange market with the GBPEUR rate opening at 1.2282, climbing throughout the first half of the day, peaking to a daily high of 1.2307 just after lunch. However over the rest of the day it lost strength to close at a daily low of 1.2280, only marginally down from the opening rate. The Pound also weakened against the US Dollar during yesterday’s market session. The GBPUSD rate opened at 1.6012 and rose to a daily high mid-morning to reach 1.6021 but then lost strength over the rest of the day to close out at a daily low of 1.5932. Only one piece of tangible data was released yesterday, the British Bankers’ Association (BBA) loans for house purchases, the number of new mortgages approved for house purchases by BBA-approved banks which accounts for approximately 65% of all mortgages. The Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, spoke yesterday at the Chamber of Commerce where his main concern was that banks do not have enough capital to absorb losses on bad loans which in turn makes it harder for them to borrow and provide credit needed by households and businesses. Today there will be no data being released from the UK.

The Euro gained strength against the Pound but lost some against the US Dollar during yesterday’s market session. The EURUSD rate opened at 1.3037, peaking early morning to a daily high of 1.3041 but then slipped down below the 1.30 mark to close out at a daily low of 1.2972. Yesterday the eurozone consumer confidence results were released, a survey on 2300 consumers in the eurozone, the figure coming out at -25.6, slightly higher then the previous result of -25.9 showing pessimism within the eurozone. This morning has seen German PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) figures being released, coming out lower than expected, 45.7 compared to the predicted rate of 48. This has seen the Euro lose strength against the Pound showing it may be a good time to be buying Euros. Later today the President of the ECB, Mario Draghi will speak at a closed-door meeting at the Bundestag, Berlin. The meeting is set to cover the budget, EU affairs and finance within the eurozone.

The US Dollar gained against both the Pound and the Euro in the foreign exchange market yesterday even though no data came out of the US. Today will see the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meet and decide on whether to keep the key interest rate the same or change it. It is currently 0.25% and nearly all analysts believe it will be kept at this rate; however the FOMC statement on this contains their outlook on the economy in general and hints about future monetary policies which is why analysts keep a close eye on the releases.

This Daily Market Update is brought to you by The Market Team @ KBRFXExchange Rate, Currency Conversion & Foreign Currency Transfer specialists.



Tuesday 23 October 2012

Daily Foreign Exchange Market Update

The main news yesterday was that of the Pound falling to a 4 month low against the Euro in the foreign exchange market showing it is not a good time to be buying Euros. The GBPEUR rate opened at 1.2281, gaining strength during the first half of the day to reach a daily high of 1.2310. It then fell throughout the rest of the day, reaching a daily low of 1.2247 an hour before the close of trade, closing slightly higher at 1.2269. The Pound also lost ground against the US Dollar during yesterday’s market session. The GBPUSD rate opened at 1.6036, peaking early, a few hours into trading to reach 1.6053, before falling throughout the rest of the day to close out at a daily low of 1.6026. There was no data released from the UK yesterday and only one piece will be released today. BBA loans for house purchases in September will come out, the number of loans approved for house purchases in the month with the figure set to increase from 30,533 to 30,840, showing an increase in confidence which is healthy for the economy. However, Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England will speak at the Chamber of Commerce today in Cardiff. As Governor of the Bank of England he has more influence over the Sterling than anyone else so analysts will scrutinize the speech to try and predict how the Pound will fare against foreign currencies.

Yesterday saw the Euro gain against the Pound and the US Dollar during the market session with the EURUSD rate opening at 1.3057 and closing at 1.3062. It fluctuated throughout the day, falling early morning to a daily low of 1.3025 but peaking an hour before the close of trade at 1.3083. The only data to be released from the eurozone yesterday was the government debt/GDP ratio for 2011. This ratio shows the amount of debt a eurozone country’s government has compared to the GDP of that country. At the end of 2010 the ratio was 87.2% and at the end of 2011 it increased slightly to 87.3%, not a great deal of difference, still a very high figure.

Today, eurozone consumer confidence will be released, data collected from a range of surveys on various topics including personal finance, the job market and future expectations. The previous figure was -25.9 and today’s figure is set to come out at -25.8, slightly better but still showing a very low level of confidence within the eurozone area.

The US Dollar gained strength against the Pound but weakened against the Euro during yesterday’s foreign exchange market session. This came off the back of no data being released from the US yesterday, the only news being the third and final US presidential debate, the election being dubbed the economic election where the main topic of conversation was foreign policy including defence spending and the trade partnership with China. No data will be released from the US today.

This Daily Market Update is brought to you by The Market Team @ KBRFXExchange Rate, Currency Conversion & Foreign Currency Transfer specialists.




Monday 22 October 2012

Daily Foreign Exchange Market Update

Last week saw the Pound weaken against the Euro in the foreign exchange market. The GBPEUR opened at 1.2406 quickly rising to a weekly high at the end of trade on Monday, to 1.2409. Throughout the rest of the week the Pound depreciated against it's Euro counterpart, hitting a weekly low on Friday morning at 1.2278, before closing the week slightly higher at 1.2409. The Pound also lost strength against the US Dollar last week with the GBPUSD opening the week at 1.6030, gaining strength over the first half of the week, peaking on Wednesday lunch time at 1.6178 before slipping lower over the remaining part of the week to close at a weekly low of 1.6003 Friday afternoon. There were a range of different results coming out of the UK last week; firstly CPI (inflation) for September was released and came out at 2.2% compared to 2.5% last September, showing the lowest rate of inflation for two years. Jobless claims and unemployment rates were released with a positive result for both. Jobless claims fell by 4K and unemployment rate fell from 8.1% to 7.9%, the lowest it has been for over a year. Growth in the economy is boosted by consumer confidence and retail sales saw a healthy increase for September compared to August, the month on month figure grew by 0.6% compared to -0.2% for August. The majority of data coming out of the UK in the last few weeks has been positive and now economists are expecting third quarter GDP data to show growth, in turn ending the UK’s nine month long recession. Some economists also believe that as inflation is close to the target rate of 2% and most data has been positive showing the UK economy may be fairing better than expected, the Bank of England may increase the amount in their Asset Purchase Program in November. From last months minutes we gleaned that policymakers were split on whether there was any need for additional QE in the future as the bank has already exhausted the allotment for this month.

The Euro strengthened against the Pound but strengthened against the US Dollar during last week’s market session. The EURUSD opened at a weekly low of 1.2920, gaining strength over the first half of the week to peak on Wednesday at 1.3137; it then closed lower on Friday at 1.3022. Last week the main data from the eurozone was the EU Summit where leaders decided to set up a single eurozone banking supervision meaning they are getting closer to a banking union which allows the central bank to intervene, if necessary, on any of the 6,000 banks in the eurozone. On Thursday Italy’s third largest lender Monte Paschi had its credit rating cut to junk by Moody’s and said it may need more state aid as it was the only Italian lender to fail the European Banking Authority’s stress test. Thursday also saw Spain sell off 3/4/10 year bonds with all the yields improving, falling a little across the day. It was also announced last week that there may be a general strike across the entire Iberian Peninsula, the first time ever, on November 14. Portugal has already called a general strike and Spain may decide to join them, with protests being held over austerity measures. This week will be very quiet for data release with the only significant piece being eurozone government debt/GDP ration which was previously 87.2%.

The US Dollar gained strength against the Pound but lost ground against the Euro during last week’s foreign exchange market session. The main data last week was CPI (inflation) which was slightly higher than expected, 2.0% compared to the prediction of 1.9%. This inflation figure shows stable growth in the US economy, add this to the retail sales figure which came out at 1.1% up from 0.8%, shows an improvement in the US. This week will see the FOMC rate decision which is expected to be kept at 0.25%. As well as this durable goods orders will be released, expected to be up by 6.8% compared to -13.2% last month. Durable goods are meant to last more than three years so they require large investments and usually reflect optimism as the expenditure must be worth while. Finally, more good news for the US economy as Friday will see third quarter GDP be released, it is also set to increase by 1.8% compared to 1.3% last quarter.

This Daily Market Update is brought to you by The Market Team @ KBRFXExchange Rate, Currency Conversion & Foreign Currency Transfer specialists.




Friday 19 October 2012

Daily Foreign Exchange Market Update

Thursday saw the Pound stay unchanged against the Euro, opening and closing at 1.2315, peaking early morning to 1.2330 and dipping to a day low of 1.2304 around noon. The Pound however lost strength against the US Dollar yesterday with the GBPEUR rate opening at 1.6142, falling to a day low early morning to 1.6116. It peaked at midday to 1.6171 and fell throughout the rest of the day to close out at 1.6138. Yesterday saw retail sales being released from the UK with positive results coming out. In September sales in creased by 0.6%, much better then August results which fell by 0.1%. Clothing and footwear sales were up by 2%, showing solid growth from the UK in Q3.

Today will see UK Public Finances, the amount of money financed to the government, being released. The previous figure was a deficit, –9.6B, which is unfavourable and can be bearish for the Pound. The figure for September is set to come out at 4.7B, a more positive result.

The Euro was unchanged against the Pound and lost ground against the US Dollar in the foreign exchange market yesterday. The EURUSD opened at 1.3107, climbing mid-morning to 1.3129 before falling for the rest of the day – reaching a day low of 1.3078, closing slightly higher at 1.3098. Yesterday the main news was from the EU Summit where the leaders have agreed to set up a single eurozone banking supervision, meaning they are getting closer to a banking union which allows the central bank to intervene, if necessary, on any of the 6,000 banks in the eurozone. There was some news out of Italy with its third largest lender having its credit rating cut to junk (Baa3 to Baa2) by Moody’s. Today will see German Producer Prices being released which are set to rise by 1.6%, same as last years result, showing an increase in the prices paid by domestic producers for goods.

The US Dollar gained strength against both the Pound and the Euro during yesterday’s market session even though US initial jobless claims came out a lot higher then expected, 388K compared to 365K. Today there will be no data coming out of the US.

This Daily Market Update is brought to you by The Market Team @ KBRFXExchange Rate, Currency Conversion & Foreign Currency Transfer specialists.



Thursday 18 October 2012

Daily Foreign Exchange Market Update

Yesterday we saw very little change between the Pound and the Euro in the foreign exchange market with the Pound slightly losing strength against its single currency counterpart. The GBPEUR opened at 1.2310, sharply dropping to a day low an hour after the open of trade, to 1.2299 before gaining strength over the next hour to peak at 1.2332. It then lost some ground across the rest of the day before closing only slightly lower at 1.23095. The Pound however gained strength against the US Dollar yesterday with the GBPUSD opening at 1.6134 slipping early morning to a day low of 1.6115. During lunch it peaked to 1.6178 before ending the day lower at 1.6178. The main piece of data coming out of the UK yesterday was unemployment rate which fell to 7.9% from 8.1%, the lowest rate since June 2011, some positive news for the economy. The only significant piece of data coming from the UK today is retail sales which came out at 2.9%, the same as the September 2011 result, it was only predicted to increase by 2.4% showing a greater consumer demand, in turn, a greater consumer confidence and economic growth. The month on month result increased by 0.6%, a lot better then last month's result of -0.2%.

The Euro gained a minimal amount of strength against the Pound and gained against the US Dollar during yesterday’s market session off the back of no data coming out of the Euro-zone yesterday. The EURUSD opened at 1.3107 before dropping to a day low minutes after the open of trade, to 1.3091. It gained over the morning and peaked early afternoon to 1.3137 before closing slightly lower at 1.3132. The main information from the Euro-zone today is that Angela Merkel is speaking at the EU summit later. She has already addressed the German government in the Bundestag where she reiterated her wish for Greece to stay in the Euro-zone. The EU summit today is meant to address youth unemployment which is one of the major concerns in the Euro-zone at the moment as well as discussing banking supervision and oversight. Later today Spain are set to sell 3, 4 and 10 year bonds hoping to raise between 3.5 and 4.5 billion Euros, however in the pre-market all the bonds are trading slightly lower then they were in previous auctions.

The US Dollar lost strength yesterday against both the Pound and the Euro during yesterday’s market session. The main data was from the housing sector where building permits and housing starts were released. Both increased more than expected with building permits coming out at 894K compared to the prediction of 810K and housing starts were a lot higher then analysts’ view of 770K, coming out at 872K. Today initial jobless claims will be released from the US with an increase expected, 363K compared to the previous result of 339K.

This Daily Market Update is brought to you by The Market Team @ KBRFXExchange Rate, Currency Conversion & Foreign Currency Transfer specialists.



Tuesday 16 October 2012

Daily Foreign Exchange Market Update

Yesterday saw the Pound gain some strength against the Euro and the US Dollar in the foreign exchange market. The GBPEUR opened at 1.2406 and fell to a day low of 1.2379 at noon before picking up during the second half of trading, closing at a day high of 1.2408. The GBPUSD opened at a day low of 1.6030 gaining ground throughout the day, peaking early morning at 1.6078 and closing only slightly lower at 1.6068. No data was released yesterday from the UK.

Today the main piece of information from the UK today is the CPI results that are expected to rise by 2.2% compared to 2.5% this time last year. CPI is always a key figure as it is the main measure for inflation, tracking changes in the price of a basket of goods.

The Euro lost ground against the Pound but gained some against the US Dollar in yesterday’s market session. The EURUSD opened at a day low of 1.2920, gaining strength in the morning before peaking at noon to reach 1.2979 – closing out lower at 1.2949. Yesterday the Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso spoke in Brussels and praised the EU’s international marketplace as the ‘cornerstone of European integration and sustainable growth’ and stated that he had seen a greater degree of openness in the council recently, showing greater confidence for the Euro-zone.

Today will also see CPI data coming out of the Euro-zone with the year-on-year figure for September set to increase by 2.7%, in line with the previous year’s result.

The US Dollar lost strength against both the Pound and the Euro yesterday on the back of advanced retail sales for September being released. This monthly measure of sales and goods at retail outlets is a significant market mover with more than 10% of all US economic activity being from retail sales. The figure increased by 1.1%, more then the analyst predictions of 0.8%.

The only significant piece of data coming out today is the CPI results, like the UK and Euro-zone, and is also expected to increase, by 1.9%, only slightly higher then the 1.7% increase last September.

This Daily Market Update is brought to you by The Market Team @ KBRFX – Exchange Rate, Currency Conversion & Foreign Currency Transfer specialists.

This Daily Market Update is brought to you by The Market Team @ KBRFXExchange Rate, Currency Conversion & Foreign Currency Transfer specialists.




Tuesday 9 October 2012

Daily Foreign Exchange Market Update 09/10/12

Yesterday saw the Pound weaken against the Euro and the Dollar in the foreign exchange market. The GBPEUR opened at 1.2389, a day high but fell throughout the day to close at a low of 1.2354. The GBPUSD rate followed a similar pattern with it opening at 1.6093 and slipping down to 1.6031 by the close of trade. Yesterday saw no information coming out of the UK.

Today will be a busy day however for UK data release, with some information having already been released such as the RICS house price balance for September which rose from the previous result of -18% to -15% showing surveyors are still reporting a loss but at an increasing rate. BRC sale, like-for-like, have also been released this morning with the result increasing by 1.5% even though the expected result was set to decrease by 0.2%. Industrial and manufacturing productions have been released and both came out with worse results than previous months, -1.1% and -0.7% respectively. NIESR GDP estimates are set to be released later with it set to increase by 0.2%, with positive results generally bullish for the Pound.

The Euro gained strength against the Pound but lost some against the Dollar during yesterday’s market session. The EURUSD opened at a high of 1.2988 but slipped down to 1.2937 early afternoon before closing slightly higher at 1.2988. Yesterday saw German trade balance falling from 19.6B to 16.3B, a major figure in the Euro-zone as Germany is Europe’s largest economy and renown for exporting so lower results can put pressure on the Euro. The other major information that has already come out of the Euro-zone yesterday was the Sentix investor confidence, improving slightly from -23.3 to -22.2 showing a greater amount of confidence in the Euro-zone.

One of the main reasons for the Euro weakening is because Mario Draghi will speak in front of the Committee of Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament where it is predicted he will say that difficult times are still ahead and that Euro area leaders should carry on implementing the necessary fiscal reforms in order to protect the economy and that we should not lose confidence in the Euro. German Chancellor, Angela Merkel is set to meet with the Greek government in Athens today to discuss the necessary austerity cuts and other ways to save the Greek economy.

The Dollar gained strength against both the Pound and the Euro yesterday despite no data being released from the US. Today will also see no data being released.


This Daily Market Update is brought to you by The Market Team @ KBRFXExchange Rate, Currency Conversion & Foreign Currency Transfer specialists.