The Pound continued to fall against both the Euro and the US Dollar in the foreign exchange market yesterday. The GBP/EUR exchange rate fell from 1.1347 at the mornings open down to 1.1328 by the days close. The GBP/USD exchange rate followed a similar pattern to the previous day, with a large slide from 1.6230 down to 1.6170 throughout the day. The economic data released from the UK yesterday was disappointing; with Nationwide house prices for August stagnant at -0.4% amid market forecasts for an increase to +0.4%, further enhancing the fragile state of the UK’s housing market. The manufacturing sector also disappointed; with the PMI manufacturing index for August falling from 49.4 to 49.0.
There are no scheduled data releases from the UK today, leaving the currency open to shifts in risk sentiment and news from the world’s other major economies.
The Euro again lost ground against the US Dollar, but gained slightly against the Pound. The EUR/USD exchange rate fell from 1.4301 down to 1.4276 across the day, the single-currency coming under fierce pressure amid a fairly poor economic docket; with 2nd quarter German GDP showing no change in the previous reading, the n.s.a growth rate level at 2.8%, and the w.d.a figure at 2.7%. German PMI manufacturing for August fell, from 52.0 to 50.9, with the Euro-zone PMI manufacturing index also falling, from 49.7 to 49.0.
Today will see the release of German PPI figures; with the market forecast for prices to rise both annually and monthly; which may not be a positive result for Europe, as rising producer prices are a good early indicator of rising inflation, which the ECB is determined to keep suppressed. With the current fragile overall economic state of the Euro-zone, rising inflation would be a serious issue, with the ECB having little room to be able to raise interest rates further after having done so twice this year already.
The US Dollar continued to show good gains in the currency exchange market, against both the Euro and the Pound; despite slightly disappointing economic data, with ISM manufacturing and prices paid for August both falling, from 50.9 to 50.6 and from 59.0 to 55.5 respectively. The currency has been finding strength on two fronts; as a safe-haven currency for investors with deep-rooted worries over the current burgeoning debt problems across Europe, and the fact that it seems almost certain that the Federal Reserve will be undertaking further monetary stimulus to boost the nation’s fragile economy.
This afternoon could see the US Dollar make sharp movements in the market, with the highly volatile Non-farm payrolls report for August. The market forecast; albeit often way off the mark, is for a drop in the reading, from 117,000 to around 65,000; which would be negative for the Dollar; but as is often the case, a revision of the previous month’s figure, and a large surprise in the current month’s level could see the currency fluctuate rapidly upon the data’s release.
The Market Team at KBRFX - www.twitter.com/kbrfx
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Showing posts with label market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label market. Show all posts
Friday, 2 September 2011
Foreign Exchange Daily Market Update 02/09/11
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Thursday, 25 August 2011
Foreign Exchange Daily Market Update 25/08/11
The Pound started to fall against both the Euro and the US Dollar in the foreign exchange market throughout yesterday. The GBP/EUR exchange rate fell from the mornings open at 1.1439 down to 1.1369 by the end of the day; with the GBP/USD exchange rate also slipping from 1.6476 down to 1.6368 by the days close. The Pound is coming under pressure with the market speculating that the Bank of England may expand its asset purchase program in the near-term, in the face of a slowing recovery; to prevent the nation falling back into recession.
Overnight we have seen the release of Nationwide consumer confidence figures; with the level falling slightly from 51 to 49, but coming in above expectations for a deeper slide to 45. This morning will see the release of CBI reported sales figures for August, with the market forecast for a drop in sales, the index expected to fall from -5 to -10, which could put the Pound under further pressure.
The Euro started to reverse some of its earlier losses against the Pound yesterday, and finished the trading day almost unchanged against the US Dollar. Despite a disappointing economic docket, the EUR/USD exchange rate ended the day at 1.4395, almost exactly as the market open at 1.4393. A negative outlook for Germany was reinforced yesterday, with IFO surveys showing a drop in business climate, current assessment, and expectation readings for the month of August. Euro-zone industrial new orders also fell; annually from 13.8% down to 11.1% and month-on-month from 3.6% to -0.7%.
This morning has seen the release of German GfK consumer confidence figures, with unsurprisingly a small drop in the reading, from 5.3 to 5.2, but the currency has remained largely unaffected. Aside from French labour market figures later this afternoon; which should have little to no effect on the currency markets; there are no significant pieces of economic data scheduled for release from Europe today.
The US Dollar regained some ground against the Pound yesterday, but showed little overall gain against the Euro despite making a small surge during the mid-afternoon. There was positive news from the US yesterday, with durable goods orders surprisingly rising for the month of July; from -1.9% up to 4.0%, and the house price index showing a positive gain, from 0.4% to 0.9%.
Today will see the release of initial jobless claims, and also continuing claims figures from the US. Despite both figures being classed as fairly low-level, any rapid shifts to either the up or downside, would have the potential to have a knock-on effect to the currency exchange markets.
The Market Team @ KBRFX
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Tuesday, 28 June 2011
Foreign Exchange Daily Market Update 28/06/11
The Pound closed lower against the Euro, but higher against the US Dollar in the foreign exchange market yesterday. The GBP/EUR exchange rate fell from 1.1270 to 1.1179 through the course of the day, putting pressure on UK consumers who are buying Euros. There was a welcome boost for people buying Dollars though, as the rate moved up from the morning’s low of 1.5930, to break the 1.60 barrier, before falling back slightly to 1.5975 by the end of the day.
There were no economic data releases from the UK yesterday to affect the movement of the currency. Today however will see the release of the final reading of 1st quarter UK GDP. With the quarterly growth rate expected to be confirmed at a level of 0.50% and annually at 1.8%, it is not an entirely impressive outlook for the UK economy, but better than any signs of a drop in growth, which would indicate an economic slowdown. Final figures for total 1st quarter business investment are also set for release, with the market forecasting no change from the previous reading of 3.2%. One figure that may give a positive boost to the Pound though is the UK’s current account balance reading for the 1st quarter; which is expected to see a reduction in the deficit from -10.5billion pounds to -4.7 billion pounds.
The Euro continued to find strength against the Pound and the US Dollar yesterday. The EUR/USD rate closed at 1.4279, a fair movement up from the morning’s level of 1.4134. The only low-level economic data to be released from Europe yesterday were figures showing that Italian hourly wages dropped slightly month-on-month, but held steady annually. The market was not really pushed by this news, as it doesn’t have any real bearing on the overall economic outlook for the Euro-zone.
Today has already seen the release of German GfK consumer confidence for July, which saw an upward movement in the reading, suggesting that sentiment across German society in regards to the economic outlook and their own personal spending is improving. There are a few figures of small economic importance to be released throughout the rest of the day, with Italian producer prices and French total jobseekers claims set for release. These figures though are likely to have little to no impact on the currency exchange market.
The Dollar weakened against the Pound and the Euro yesterday, and the economic docket did little to halt the slide. Figures released yesterday showed that personal income in the US has stagnated, at a level of 0.3%, while personal spending has dropped, from 0.3% to 0.00%, suggesting that wages are not increasing across the country, and regardless of this, consumers are holding onto their money; which is not good for the economy.
The market will focus on US consumer confidence figures that will be released today. The market has forecast a slight increase in consumer confidence, which would be positive for the US currency, as it would indicate a perceived improvement in business conditions, employment and personal spending.
Mike Hood
KBRFX
There were no economic data releases from the UK yesterday to affect the movement of the currency. Today however will see the release of the final reading of 1st quarter UK GDP. With the quarterly growth rate expected to be confirmed at a level of 0.50% and annually at 1.8%, it is not an entirely impressive outlook for the UK economy, but better than any signs of a drop in growth, which would indicate an economic slowdown. Final figures for total 1st quarter business investment are also set for release, with the market forecasting no change from the previous reading of 3.2%. One figure that may give a positive boost to the Pound though is the UK’s current account balance reading for the 1st quarter; which is expected to see a reduction in the deficit from -10.5billion pounds to -4.7 billion pounds.
The Euro continued to find strength against the Pound and the US Dollar yesterday. The EUR/USD rate closed at 1.4279, a fair movement up from the morning’s level of 1.4134. The only low-level economic data to be released from Europe yesterday were figures showing that Italian hourly wages dropped slightly month-on-month, but held steady annually. The market was not really pushed by this news, as it doesn’t have any real bearing on the overall economic outlook for the Euro-zone.
Today has already seen the release of German GfK consumer confidence for July, which saw an upward movement in the reading, suggesting that sentiment across German society in regards to the economic outlook and their own personal spending is improving. There are a few figures of small economic importance to be released throughout the rest of the day, with Italian producer prices and French total jobseekers claims set for release. These figures though are likely to have little to no impact on the currency exchange market.
The Dollar weakened against the Pound and the Euro yesterday, and the economic docket did little to halt the slide. Figures released yesterday showed that personal income in the US has stagnated, at a level of 0.3%, while personal spending has dropped, from 0.3% to 0.00%, suggesting that wages are not increasing across the country, and regardless of this, consumers are holding onto their money; which is not good for the economy.
The market will focus on US consumer confidence figures that will be released today. The market has forecast a slight increase in consumer confidence, which would be positive for the US currency, as it would indicate a perceived improvement in business conditions, employment and personal spending.
Mike Hood
KBRFX
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