Thursday 29 March 2012

The Pound declined against the US Dollar and against the Euro in the foreign exchange market. The GBP/EUR exchange rate picked up from 1.1933 at the morning’s open to trade in an open range from the day low of 1.1908 and the high of 1.1943, before trading back around 1.1920 by the close of the UK business day. The GBP/USD exchange rate picked up from 1.5942 to trade down to the day’s low of 1.5840 before trading back towards 1.5853 by the European market close. The Pound also declined against the New Zealand Dollar, but managed to gain against the Australian Dollar in the foreign exchange market yesterday. The GBP/NZD exchange rate picked up from 1.9417 at the morning’s open to trade down towards 1.9412 by the close of the UK business day. The GBP/AUD exchange rate opened up from 1.5265 and finished the session higher at 1.5290.

Yesterday on the economic data front we had seen a decline in Gross Domestic Product figures from the UK. The year-on-year figure missed expectations coming in at 0.5% vs 0.7% expected by economists. Quarterly figure was also down at -0.3% vs. -0.2% expected by economists. However Total Business Investment year-on-year was up at 1.6% from -2.0% previously.

This morning Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. year-on-year showed a decline coming in at -0.9% vs. 0.9%. At 09:30 GMT today we will look out for UK Mortgage Approvals (Feb) which is expected to decline from 58.7k to 57.2k, followed by Net Consumer Credit and Net Lending.

The Euro declined against the US dollar, but gained slightly against the Pound in the currency exchange market yesterday. The EUR/USD exchange opened up at 1.3357 and traded in an open range between 1.3277 and 1.3374, before trading back towards the 1.3299 level by the European market close.

Yesterday from the Euro-zone we had the release of the French GDP figures, with the year-on-year figure just missing expectations at 1.3% vs. 1.4%, Italian Business Confidence (Mar) increased from 91.7 to 92.1. Also German Consumer Price Index (Mar) declined slightly on the year-on-year figure from 2.3% to 2.2%.

This morning German Unemployment Rate beat expectations with the rate declining from 6.8% to 6.7%, also Unemployment change came in better at -18K vs. -10k expected by economists. Today we will look our for the Euro-zone Consumer confidence due at 10:00 GMT, where economists are expecting no change at -19.

The US Dollar gained against the Pound and the Euro currencies yesterday. On the economic data front we had seen mixed data from the US with the Mortgage Applications coming in better than the prior month at -2.7% vs. -7.4%. Durable Goods come in worse than expected at 2.2% vs. 3.0% but was higher than the prior release of -3.6%.

Later today we will be looking out for the US Gross Domestic Product figures due at 13:30 GMT, where economists are expecting no change at 3.0% for the annualised release. Also we will be looking out for Initial and Continuing claims, where economists are expecting an increase from 348k to 35k for Initial Jobless Claims.


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